Pivoting marketing strategy in the face of a recession

We asked four of the leading fractional chief marketing officers about their thoughts on marketing models during a recession – how it will be impacted by the war in Iran, the cost-of-living crisis influencing consumer behaviour and whether there is even an appetite for non-essential spending.

The autopilot consumer is waking up

Pip Stocks, marketing consultant and CEO of The Startup Muse said in 2014, she ran a study looking at how people made everyday purchasing decisions. 

"What we found was that a surprising number of purchases happened almost unconsciously. People bought the same brands, in the same stores, with very little active thought." 

"We described it as autopilot consumption," adds Stocks.

"But pressure changes behaviour. When households feel financial strain, habits get questioned. Assumptions get revisited. Purchases that once happened automatically suddenly require justification." 

Human behaviour is changing in the face of inflation

According to Dr Anna Harrison, keynote speaker, founder of RAMMP and inventor of the ADORE Process (the only patented methodology for measuring trust in the buying journey) believes you need an equal dose of realism and hope when building your marketing models to withstand the perils of a recession.  

"While I personally am an optimist, even for my rosy-coloured outlook it's hard to ignore the prevailing winds: interest rate rises, supply chain disturbances, wars, escalating costs of power and petrol – all of these factors have ripple effects that are going to make their mark on your brand this year."

"I can, with a good degree of certainty, tell you how your customers will change their buying behaviour as we enter recessionary conditions," Harrison adds. 

"The reason for this is that as humans, we behave in quite regular and predictable ways, and as anyone who appreciates AI and computer science will tell you, a pattern is a wonderful thing. A pattern allows us to develop systems to optimise situations – indeed, we used these patterns in buying behaviour to build RAMMP to help brands navigate the uncertainties of pandemic and recessionary conditions with more confidence."

Common mistakes marketers make in uncertain times

Geoff Main, marketing director and founder at Passionberry Marketing says "Consumers are looking for ways to balance budgets without sacrificing quality of life. They might eat out less, but spend more on premium groceries. They may delay holidays, but invest in better at-home experiences. They may switch brands in low-attachment categories, while staying loyal in high-trust ones."

"This creates a more complex market than a traditional downturn," adds Main. "Such complexities mean the familiar marketing habits quickly lose their effectiveness. Blanket discounting, for example, can erode brand value without addressing what consumers are really looking for: a clear reason to buy."

"Broad brand messaging that lacks practical utility also struggles to land when people are scrutinising every purchase." 

Another common mistake is assuming all consumers are cutting back in the same way, when in reality the market is fragmenting, with some households trading down while others remain willing to spend on things they truly value. 

"When people are actively weighing trade-offs, brands that make decisions simple and transparent will always have the advantage," he adds.

What marketing metrics hit the mark during economic downturns?

In this environment, the role of marketing becomes more grounded. Helping people make decisions becomes more useful than trying to influence them from a distance.

Fractional CMO Fabrizia Roberto believes marketing during tough times hones in on four key metrics: value, context, consistency and transparency.

"Value needs to be easy to grasp. If someone has to work to understand why something is worth it, they'll move on."

"Context matters more than static audience definitions. The same person behaves differently depending on what they're buying and what trade-offs they're managing that day."

"Consistency carries more weight. Every touchpoint becomes part of how a brand is evaluated, not just the campaign."

"And, transparency builds confidence. When people are comparing options more actively, clarity wins."

On the other hand, some lazy marketing habits don't survive this kind of scrutiny.

"Messaging that feels disconnected from real life loses traction quickly. Complex pricing erodes trust. Assumed loyalty becomes fragile," adds Roberto. 

When people are more deliberate, they're also more open to brands that make their lives easier, that understand and respect their constraints and that deliver reliably.

Helping someone feel confident in their choice is incredibly valuable. Showing up as a meaningful brand that truly cares about the consumer is where the magic happens. 

The rise of the two-wallet economy

Another important shift is the emergence of what economists describe as a two-wallet economy.

Cost-of-living pressures are widespread, but they're not evenly distributed. Some households are cutting spending aggressively, switching brands and delaying purchases. Others remain financially comfortable but are becoming more considerate about value.

"In uncertain economic conditions, marketers often default too quickly to price cuts. But the real opportunity is to reframe value, not just reduce price. That means helping people understand why a purchase makes sense right now. Sometimes that's about positioning a product against real-life alternatives – for example, showing how something fits into the trade-offs people are making, like "instead of dining out," says Main. 

It's also about building trust. "Proof points, case studies and clear reassurance become much more powerful when people are scrutinising their spending. At the same time, marketers should be thinking beyond short-term sales and focusing on retention and customer lifetime value. Designing offerings that work for both value-seeking and premium segments is increasingly important as the market splits," adds Main. 

"In uncertain markets, helping customers quickly understand why something is worth it right now will perform the best."

Six things matter more than ever

If we drill down to what the marketer needs in order to thrive in times of global uncertainty, Pip Stocks believes these six things will act as a bible moving forward: 

1. Be crystal clear on value
Consumers want to understand exactly why something is worth the money.

2. Show practical usefulness
Products that save time, reduce hassle or genuinely improve life rise to the top.

3. Remove friction by showing clear intent
Complex pricing, confusing offers and unnecessary effort are quickly rejected.

4. Offer flexibility
Smaller packs, entry offers and adjustable subscriptions help consumers stay engaged.

5. Segment by financial mindset
The two-wallet economy means customers are not experiencing the market in the same way.

6. Stay close to your customers
Really understand the needs of the customer on a deep and personal level. What people cut first – and what they refuse to give up – rarely appears in dashboards. It shows up in conversations.